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That's only 4 years from now, about as long as this blog has been around (2008-2012), and after seeing that article all I could think was who cares, by 2016 we will all be using 60TB SSDs anyway....

I know what you're thinking:  "Whaaaa?!?  60 terabyte SSD?!?  I just bought a 60/120 gigabyte SSD, how are they going to have 60 terabyte in 4 years?!?"

"Big deal," you say, "4x the storage for the same price in 2 years, so what, so I'll have 1 terabyte SSD for $200 in 2014?"  Essentially, yes, but far larger options are on the horizon:  OCZ already has a 16tb SSD transferring at 6.5gBps.  That already exceeds the fastest available SATA connection, SATA 3.0 so even it's smaller 1.2tb cousin uses a PCI Express x8 slot that is usually reserved for video cards because SATA just can't keep up.

So if we have SSDs now that offer four times the storage space then the largest 4 terabyte hard drives and they exceed the maximum bandwidth SATA can offer, why would anyone spend money on a hard drive?  Oh right, price, but I've already shown that's dropping quickly.  By 2016 no one will want a slow (160 mBps and 6 ms access)large (376 cm3)heavy (1.5 lbs), power sucking (15-30w) 60 terabyte 3.5" hard drive when they can buy a fast (500+ mBps and 0.04 ms access), small (66.5 cm3), lightweight (0.29 lbs), eco-friendly (0.6 watts) SSD probably larger than 60 terabytes.

Also keep in mind the technology in SSDs is used in cellphones, mp3 players, tablets and any device that needs a long battery life, light weight and has limited space for storage, while hard drives are limited to desktops or other situations where size, weight and power consumption is not a primary concern.  Because of this every device will use SSDs causing the price to continue to plunge while hard drive prices will not decrease as quickly, and I'm willing to predict that by 2015 the price per terabyte of SSDs will be similar to hard drives.

Posted on Wednesday, May 23, 2012 5:32 PM | Back to top

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